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Local Government Polls in Jamaica Expect Some Surprise

By Cedric Johnson

The opposition “Jamaica Labor Party says it will campaign on national fundamental issues and use the elections as a referendum to judge the performance of the P. J. Patterson led government. On the other hand, the PNP will be on the hustings, selling the idea that it has performed and that it is best able to formulate and implement local policy issues for the benefit of the people.
Patterson, who has gained a reputation for perhaps Jamaica’s most cunning political leader to date, has called local elections for June 19th . Nomination day was May 30th. The whole process is scheduled to take place just before a new voters’ list with more than twenty thousand (20,000) potential voters is ready for publication. These potential electors will effectively be disenfranchised.
Pundits are questioning whether the phenomenal slide of the local currency and its subsequent revaluation was an accident or was something carefully and meticulously designed by the government led by the wily Mr. Patterson. There is a strong view among most Jamaicans that the whole thing was craftily manipulated, stages managed and timed to coincide with the announcement of the local elections.
In regards to the elections and the stakes involved, certainly these will be the most vigorous and keenly contested local elections in Jamaica’s modern political history. But what are the national issues the JLP will be putting on the table? Will the governing PNP take on a national campaign? So to this end, what will be the PNP’s campaign issues? What are the issues of voters? What is on the agenda? What is likely to be the outcome of these elections? 
Mr. Edward Seaga and the JLP have said they want an indicative referendum to determine whether Jamaica should join its eastern neighbors in a proposed Caribbean Court of Justice, thus abandoning The United Kingdom based Privy Council as the final Court of Appeal. Backed by a large body of opinion, the JLP will see this as a critical issue in the June 19 polls.
The JLP will most certainly campaign on the economical debacle the county is undergoing. The economic policies being pursued by government has resulted in the poor being savaged; the wiping out of the middle class and the bringing about of the real and present danger of mass social upheaval, the likes of which has not been seen here in the last 65 years.
Other national issues the Opposition party could and most certainly will exploit in this campaign will be crime, violence and the justice system, unemployment, conditions facing the physical and social infrastructure and corruption.
It is very clear that the governing PNP is quite vulnerable regarding these issues and will seek to shy away from them; but if the JLP is astute enough they could force them into a corner from which they will have to defend. In any discussion of this kind it must be remembered that the PNP has a superior political organization and a fine, well oiled party machine. This is what has carried them home in times like these when things have hit rock bottom and popular sentiments have decisively turned against them.
Not surprising, the ruling party will be pushing local government reform, arguing that this will lay the foundation for the provision of better and a more equitable allocation of services to the people at the local level. They will point to water, electricity, primary health care, road repair/maintenance, the provision of a proper fire service, markets and the garbage disposal system. Some folk are saying however, that the PNP has been paying lip service to these matters for the better part of its 14 years in government and it appears sinister that it is only now getting into a hurry to put them in place. In any case, the question becomes relevant, with the state of the economy and the lack of finance, where will the money be coming from to improve these services?
My own view is that in as much as people would love to see these things addressed urgently, the priorities right now are the provisions of jobs, tackling the crime rate, improving the economy and making education more affordable.

Eying the Mayor’s Job

Several veterans of local politics will not be on the ballots this time around while some interesting faces, some that disappeared from the national parliamentary scene, have suddenly re-emerged in an effort to stage a come back to the political arena.
In the Parish of Westmoreland where the PNP controls the Council by taking all 14 divisions in the 1998 elections, the long time Mayor Ralph Anglin who represents the Leamington district, will not be on the hustings. Anglin, a protégé of PJ Patterson and one of his trusted constituency administrators is now regarded as the dean of local government politics and was some years ago honored with the presidency of the Association of Local Government Authorities (ALGA), a group representing the interest of local bodies.
Trevor Ruddock, an attorney-at-law and former Member of Parliament for western Westmoreland has entered the race. It is said that Ruddock now wants to become Mayor of Savanna-La-Mar now that Anglin is calling it a day. The former MP who will be running in the historic and sugar belt district of fame, Is believed to have the blessing of PNP strongman and the present Member of Parliament for the area, Dr. Karl Blythe, who is also said to be backing him from the job as mayor.
Based on the results in the last general elections, Kingston and St. Andrew along with St. Thomas could be a toss up to close to call. Parishes that will likely go to the PNP are St. Catherine, St. Mary, St. Ann Westmoreland Clarendon, Trelawhy, St. James and Hanover. The PNP could take 120 districts to the JLP’s 104. In the 1998 elections, The PNP while capturing all the parishes, took almost two thirds of the available seats while the JLP won in some 60 electoral districts.
The results however are not a foregone conclusion and it is certainly not over by the shouting. Several factors must be taken into account:
1. The ruling party seldom looses local elections
2. Polling is traditionally low
3. The state of the electoral list 
4. Campaign financing 
5. Party Organization

If the JLP can muster the strength to mobilize and attract sufficient financing to launch an effective campaign, turning it into a referendum on the government’s performance, then the result could be revealing. Indeed, there could be some suprises.

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